Population Dynamics and Sustainability of School Groups in Mexico: A Comparative Study Across Latin America

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the sustainability of school groups in Mexico, identifying the causes of declining enrollment, its organizational effects, and potential public policy directions, through a comparison with Latin American countries such as Chile, Peru, and Uruguay. Methods: A theoretical review was conducted based on official information from the 2024–2025 school year and recent regional studies, complemented by a comparative analysis of education systems in Latin America. Results: The findings show that the sustainability of school groups in Mexico is affected by structural factors such as the demographic transition, increased school dropout rates, and socioeconomic inequalities. The declining birth rate has reduced enrollment, while the COVID-19 pandemic, territorial disparities, and budget constraints have impacted school retention. In regional comparison, although Latin America faces a common educational crisis, Mexico presents a more complex combination of factors that increases the risk of reduced class schedules, group merging, and institutional restructuring. Conclusions: The sustainability of school groups depends not only on demographic factors, but also on the State's capacity to implement comprehensive policies that integrate demographic planning, territorial equity, and effective strategies for school retention.